The 40-70 Rule: Why the Best Reps Act Before They're Ready

Good Morning. Happy St. Patrick's Day! From the entire Follow Up team, we wish you all the luck today in your selling. That said, luck in sales is usually just being in the right place at the right time, or sticking around long enough for something to finally break your way. So wear your green, hope your calls go well, and maybe keep the celebration light since it's a Tuesday and you still have work tomorrow. Now, let's get into today's Follow Up. (:

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You've been working on that email for 15 minutes.

You've rewritten the subject line 4 times.

You're not sure if the prospect is the right person, or if the timing is right, or if you should wait until you have a better case study to reference.

So you save it as a draft and tell yourself you'll send it tomorrow. Tomorrow turns into next week. Next week turns into never sending the freak’n email.

I get it because I’ve been there. It’s analysis paralysis, because we want things to be ‘perfect’ before we take action.

But the best reps (and entrepreneurs) don't get stuck like this.

Two of the most successful decision makers in history arrived at the same conclusion from completely different worlds.

Here's how you can use their frameworks in sales:

Colin Powell spent 35 years in the U.S. military and served as the 65th Secretary of State.

He made decisions that affected millions of people, often with incomplete data.

His rule was simple: act when you have between 40 and 70 percent of the information. Less than 40% and you're guessing. More than 70%, and you've waited too long.

"Don't take action if you have only enough information to give you less than a 40 percent chance of being right," Powell said.

"But don't wait until you have enough facts to be 100 percent sure, because by then it is almost always too late."

A lot of reps operate like they need 95% certainty before they pick up the phone.

They want the perfect contact, the perfect trigger event, the perfect opening line. By the time all of that lines up, you’ve wasted a bunch of time, and there’s a chance the prospect already took a meeting with someone who reached out 3 weeks ago.

Jeff Bezos came to a similar conclusion from a completely different angle. In his 2015 letter to Amazon shareholders, he introduced the idea of Type 1 and Type 2 decisions.

Type 1 decisions are one-way doors. They're irreversible, and you should take your time with them.
Type 2 decisions are two-way doors. If you walk through and don't like what's on the other side, you can walk right back.

Bezos's point was that most decisions are Type 2, but people treat them like Type 1. They overthink, overresearch, and overprepare for something that's completely reversible.

Now think about the decisions you make as a sales rep every day… Sending a cold email. Calling a prospect you're not sure about. Bringing up pricing earlier than usual. Asking for the meeting on the first call instead of the third.

Every single one of those is a two-way door. If the email doesn't land, you send a better one. If the call goes sideways, you adjust.

The worst case is a "no" (or my favorite: ‘take me off your list’!). The best case is a booked meeting.

An MIT study tracked over 15,000 leads and found that reps who contacted a lead within 5 minutes were 21 times more likely to qualify them than reps who waited 30 minutes.

That means the odds of getting in contact with a lead dropped 10x in the first hour alone. Speed is THE advantage.

The rep who reaches out while the prospect is still thinking about the problem will always beat the rep who waits until they have the perfect pitch or have all of the background info.

Powell says act between 40 and 70 percent. Bezos says most of your decisions are reversible anyway. The MIT data says the fastest rep wins.

The takeaway is the same from all 3: you probably already have enough information. Send the email. Make the call. You can always adjust after.

Today’s newsletter was written by Nic Conley